November 19, 2011
While Jakarta Governor Fauzi Bowo was calling on everyone to stop scaring people with predictions of massive floods next year, the UN weather agency said that the La Nina phenomenon blamed for serious incidents in the past was already here.
“This La Nina is expected to persist through the end of this year and into early 2012, possibly strengthening to moderate intensity,” the World Meteorological Organization said in a statement.
The agency said that La Nina, a phenomenon linked to flooding and drought, had re-emerged in the tropical Pacific since August.
Many have suggested that Jakarta’s so-called five-year massive flood cycle was linked to the La Nina and El Nino weather phenomena. The last one, in 2007 put large swaths of the capital under water, displacing thousands.
La Nina is characterized by unusually cool ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It is the opposite of El Nino, which is marked by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures.
The WMO said the weather phenomena can bring about strong rainfall in Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia, as well as drought in South America.
However, the agency also said that it is likely to be considerably weaker this time than the recent episode that was linked to flooding and drought in different parts of the world.
“Historical precedents and the latest outputs from forecast models suggest that peak intensity of this La Nina will be reached in late 2011 or early 2012, and that it is very unlikely to reach conditions as strong as those of the 2010-11 La Nina event,” the WMO statement said.
On Thursday, Fauzi said that the city had taken all the necessary precautions to prevent or deal with any massive floods, including by dredging rivers in the city and expanding Jakarta’s drainage network.
“If those statements [on flood risks] are just to enhance the people’s level of alertness, that would be good, so that we can prepare our umbrellas for when it rains,” the governor said. “But if these statements are meant to scare people, then they are just inappropriate.”
Fauzi added that a massive flood in the city would only occur if the level of rains upstream, in the mountains, would continuously be unusually high.
Arfan Arkili, the head of the regional disaster mitigation office, said that he had already coordinated with the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). He was told that there were no indications that a massive flood like the one in 2007 could be expected this year or early 2012.
“And even if inundations do take place, we are well prepared,” Arfan said.
Meanwhile, Jakartans can breathe a sigh of relief this weekend as meteorologists are foreseeing only limited precipitation.
“There will be only light rains on Saturday and Sunday evening,” Elvin Aldrian, the BMKG’s head of climate change and air quality, told the Jakarta Globe on Friday.
(as read in the JG)
za 19 nov 2011 - 20:12