The Jakarta Globe, Oct 09, 2014
Jakarta. The opposition to President-elect Joko Widodo on Wednesday managed to score a narrow victory, which completed the bloc’s attempt to dominate all legislative bodies in Indonesia, prompting further anxiety about political stability in the country.
After dominating the leadership of the House of Representatives last week, losing presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto’s Red-White Coalition also managed to gain full control of the People’s Consultative Assembly, or MPR.
It is the highest legislative body in the country, and it has the power to amend the Constitution and impeach a president.
After an MPR plenary session marked by shouting and back-room lobbying lasting nearly 19 hours, former forestry minister Zulkifli Hasan of the National Mandate Party (PAN), backed by the Red-White Coalition, had the majority of the votes cast, at 347, compared to 330 for businessman Oesman Sapta Odang, backed by Joko’s coalition.
Besides Zulkifli, four deputy speakers were selected, all members of the Red-White Coalition: Hidayat Nur Wahid from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), Mahyuddin from Golkar Party, Oesman Sapta Odang who was nominated by the Regional Representative Council, or DPD, and E.E. Mangindaan from the Democratic Party.
Aleksius Jemadu, the dean of political sciences at Pelita Harapan University, said the opposition’s rule over the MPR would affect Joko’s survivability as president.
“There’s even a chance that Jokowi won’t finish his five-year tenure. Because the KMP [Red-White Coalition] favors [presidential] elections not by the people, but by the MPR. This will also be a way for them to control the executive bodies,” he continued.
However, the newly elected speaker has denied any plan to weaken or even impeach Joko after his inauguration as president on Oct. 20, promising a smooth handover of power.
“The most important thing is to build a prosperous nation … that is our national goal, so there is no intention to impeach anyone,” Zulkifli said after the grueling plenary session that lasted until the early hours of Wednesday morning.
Zulkifli gave his guarantee that Joko’s inauguration would be safe and smooth, without any political disruption, as far as he was concerned. The PAN politician also said it was absurd for anybody to think of impeaching Joko.
“We need to prioritize the unity [of the nation], the MPR is the glue that holds all the different parts together,” Zulkifli said.
Vendeta
But in an interview with the Wall Street Journal published this week, Prabowo’s brother Hashim Djojohadikusumo said he was seeking revenge against Joko, whom he said had betrayed him.
Hashim said he was the president-elect’s primary financial backer when he ran for governor of Jakarta two years ago. In return, he said, Joko promised not to run for president and stand in the way of his brother Prabowo’s ambition to rule the country.
Joko defeated Prabowo by 53 percent to 47 percent of the vote during the July 9 presidential election.
Hashim detailed what the Red-White Coalition, which has control over the House and 31 provincial legislatures (DPRD), aimed to do with such enormous legislative power.
“We’ll be able to control the legislative agenda,” he told the Journal.
The bloc aims to scrutinize every policy made and every action taken by the Joko administration.
The House also has the power to appoint people in top government posts, including chief of the National Police, Armed Forces and the judiciary, something the coalition isn’t shy to exploit.
“It gives us a lot of say in who those people will be,” Hashim said.
In a separate interview with Reuters, he explained that the coalition was intent on using corruption cases that occurred during Joko’s terms as Jakarta governor and mayor of Solo, Central Java, to obstruct him.
“We will use our power to investigate and to obstruct,” he said.
This would include looking into alleged corruption involving the Rp 1.5 trillion ($123 million) purchase of Chinese-made buses by the Jakarta administration earlier this year, as well as irregularities in Solo’s education budget.
Joko has never been accused of any wrongdoing in either of the two cases.
Not so easy
Yunarto Wijaya, executive director of think tank Charta Politika, said the chances of Joko being impeached by the MPR was slim. “The process is too complicated and too long,” he said.
By law, the House would have to reach a formal decision before it can propose to the MPR to impeach a president.
The House is also required to secure a Constitutional Court ruling proving that a president violated the law or was no longer qualified to rule the country.
To impeach a president, a two-thirds majority is required in a plenary attended by 75 percent of all MPR members.
Political observer Anas Saidi from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) said some members of the opposition might not support attempts to impeach Joko.
“It carries a huge political risk,” he said, adding that Indonesia would likely see major demonstrations and conflict if that happened.
Muhammad Misbakhun, a lawmaker from the Golkar Party, the biggest member of the Red-White Coalition, said his party would not approve plans to impeach Joko.
“You can’t impeach [a president] that easily. There’s no plan to create excuses for impeachment,” he said. “We are merely balancing the government.”
Theo Sambuaga, a deputy chairman of Golkar, said the party would also back away from plans to alter the Constitution, as some analysts have feared.
Several members of the Red-White Coalition have previously proposed that presidents should be appointed by the MPR rather been elected directly by the people, as it did during the rule of president Suharto.
The Constitution would have to be amended to enact such a system. By law it takes just one third of MPR members to propose changes to the Constitution. And to enact the changes, a vote of 50 percent plus one is required in a plenary session of two thirds of all MPR members.
“There are no such thoughts by Golkar [to amend the Constitution] . We’ll make sure [direct presidential elections] continue because its what people want,” Theo said.
However, Golkar did support the Red-White Coalition’s move to scrap direct elections for regional leaders, in spite of massive public outcry.
Long road to stability
Yunarto of Charta Politika said another likely scenario would be to block reform-minded policies by Joko.
“There will be more and continuous conflicts in the future that may eventually disadvantage investors who want to enter Indonesia, because they require political stability,” he said.
Idrus Marham, deputy coordinator of the Red-White Coalition, said on the bloc’s agenda is a revision of 100 laws, which he described are profiting foreign investors.
“Foreigners can own over 90 percent of our banks. What will this country be [if this continues to happen]?” the Golkar Party politician said, hinting that the revisions would likely profit Indonesian tycoons and businesses, which had disputes with their foreign counterparts.
The coalition also expressed its wish to maintain the indirect election system for regional leaders, which President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono blocked with a recent government regulation in lieu of law, known as a Perppu, restoring the direct election of regional leaders.
By law, the Perppu must be endorsed by the House, 63 percent of which is currently controlled by the opposition, which will likely reject Yudhoyono’s decree.
But University of Indonesia political observer Arbi Sanit said this would give Joko’s four-party coalition a chance to get Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party on board, tipping the balance of power.
“We can see the Democrats have the same strategic position [as Joko’s coalition] on several important issues. This is the momentum to form a bigger coalition with the Democrats,” he said.
But a big factor hindering the two sides from joining forces is a strained relationship between Megawati Soekarnoputri, the chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), and Yudhoyono, a former minister in Megawati’s cabinet.
Joko’s coalition also has a chance to gain another member, the United Development Party (PPP), the smallest party in the Red-and White Coalition, which was twice snubbed by other bloc members in its bid to gain a leadership post in either the House or the Assembly.
During the speaker selection process in the MPR, Joko’s coalition accommodated the PPP’s ambition, which PPP faction leader Aunur Rofiq said “marked a key step” in getting the two sides together.
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do 9 okt 2014 - 0:13